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May Games In New Orleans?
Authored by Christopher Reina - January 17, 2008 - 4:45 pm



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The New Orleans Hornets narrowly missed out on the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, but with a 26-12 record, May games look like a certainty.

For the season they have a per game FIC differential of 6.5 over their opponents, which is 10th in the NBA.

(Note: Floor Impact Counter is my efficiency rating and the number below is the difference between a team’s own FIC and their opponents FIC per game. Click here for more information on the FIC.)

Per game FIC differential for 07-08
BOS: 23.6
DET: 17.9
PHX: 16.0
LAL: 12.9
DAL: 10.7
UTH: 10.7
SAS: 10.6
HOU: 7.4
DEN: 7.2
NOH: 6.5
POR: 3.8

During their 39-43 2006-2007 season, they had a FIC differential of -3.5, which is a per game FIC improvement of +10.

Per game FIC improvement from 06-07 to present
BOS: 32.7
LAL: 13.5
POR: 12.0
NOH: 10.0
ATL: 9.1

Over their past ten games, they have a FIC differential of 10.8 over their opponents, which is seventh in the NBA during the span.

They have already exceeded their road win total from a year ago, but it all begins and ends with the improved play of their own big three.

- Chris Paul: 21.0 per 40 FIC (16.4 last season)

Beyond the obvious of simply staying healthy (he has only missed two games), Paul has made a tremendous leap this season as a shooter, particularly his use of the pull-up jumper. Last season he had an eFG% of 43% on jump shots and has increased seven points to 50% this year.

While still a choosy 3-point shooter, Paul is on pace to almost double the number of made 3-pointers from a season ago. He came into the league shooting 28% during his rookie season and it is now a highly respectable 37%.

These two factors, combined with an overall increased sense of himself as a scorer, has led him to score more than four more points per 40 minutes.

He has an assist/turnover ratio of 3.82 (up slightly from 3.53 last season), which is 4th behind Jose Calderon, Brevin Knight and Anthony Johnson.

Paul is very much on the forefront (and very emblematic) of what is a golden season/age for point guards.


Paul makes a game-winning runner in New Jersey


- Tyson Chandler: 16.3 (15.9 last season)

In all areas except scoring, Chandler is roughly the same player that he was last season during his breakout campaign. He is more heavily involved in the Hornets’ offense and is scoring three more points per 40 as he shoots more and also gets to the line more frequently.


Chandler also receives a lot of these easy Paul-assisted buckets


- David West: 15.1 (13.5 last season)

West played in just 52 games last season due to elbow surgery and he has reemerged as a better perimeter shooter and a much-improved rebounder, increasing his rebound rate from 12.9 to 14.9. Thought of by many as a combo-forward, West has carried a far heavier load on the glass (though they were a better rebounding team overall last season) and is more of a classic power forward by going into the paint with greater frequency on offense.


West had a career 12.4 FIC per 40 before Paul arrived


Beyond their big three, they are also getting consistently productive play from Peja Stojakovic (9.9), Morris Peterson (8.5) and Bobby Jackson (10.1), but their bench remains extremely weak by any standard (especially for a playoff team) and it is unlikely they could sustain without Paul, West or Chandler in the lineup for any extended time. This fact will likely lead to a trade between now and February 22nd.

Further reading: They also have the best cost per win ratio in the NBA