| 2009-10 Season Preview: New Orleans Hornets Authored by Christopher Reina - October 26, 2009 - 4:24 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: 12th, (+3.8)
Key Additions: Emeka Okafor, Ike Diogu, Darius Songaila, Bobby Brown
Key Subtractions: Tyson Chandler, Rasual Butler, Antonio Daniels
Key Rookies: Darren Collison,
Probable Starters: Chris Paul, Morris Peterson, Julian Wright, David West, Emeka Okafor
Point Guard: If one position will be the clearest area of strength when there are weaknesses on the wings, it might as well be at the point guard position. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the NBA by a fairly wide margin, for at least another season or two. He probably had his finest season in 08-09 and has remained remarkably durable. Paul makes every teammate significantly better, as evidenced by his net on/off of +19.8, which was second in the NBA behind just LeBron James. There is little doubt, at least in my mind, that these are the two most valuable players to their team in the entire NBA, especially given their lack of quality supporting casts compared to the depth that exists in Orlando and the Lakers.
Over the past two seasons, Paul has increased his scoring frequency to 21.4 points per 36 minutes while at an efficient clip of a True Shooting Percentage of .599. He will likely take on an even greater scoring load this season.
Backing him up will be Darren Collison and Bobby Brown, with the latter likely playing the majority of the minutes when Paul is out of the game at least at the start of the season. Brown also will play beside Paul, a formula Byron Scott has frequently used whether with Speedy Claxton, Jannero Pargo or Antonio Daniels.
Brown hasn't logged 1,000 NBA minutes, but has been in impressive during the preseason while Collison has to continue making adjustments defensively. Defensively, Collison was always excellent at UCLA and that transition will come with more reps.
Swingmen: This is a very important season for Julian Wright, who will begin the season as the starter at small forward. Wright gave the Hornets good minutes on the glass and defensively last season, but his True Shooting Percentage dropped from .581 as a rookie to .479; if that number doesn't nudge back up to the low to mid .500s then the Hornets will be in severe trouble from an offensive standpoint on the wing.
The two-guard position will be manned by Morris Peterson to start the season, but isn't a reliable option for all 82 games. He still is a good perimeter shooter, but doesn't have the tools off the dribble or in the paint to be anything more than a fourth or fifth option offensively.
The same can be said for Peja Stojakovic, who has one of the worst contracts in the NBA. His 3-point percentage dipped to 37.8% in 08-09, down from 44.1% during 07-08, but he still had a net on/off of +6.6. Stojakovic's role this season will be about the same as Wally Szczerbiak's last year with Cleveland.
James Posey will continue to be an agitator, but his $6M salary would be more valuable to the Celtics, Lakers or Cavs than a second-tier contender like the Hornets.
Devin Brown and Marcus Thornton will fight for the remaining scraps of minutes.
Frontcourt: The New Orleans frontcourt received a makeover in the form of dealing Tyson Chandler to the Bobcats in exchange for Emeka Okafor. Okafor is more reliable health-wise at this stage in their careers and was far more productive last season. They have fairly similar skill sets, though Okafor is a far more ground-oriented player. He should do a better job defending the Western Conference's best post players one-on-one than Chandler and is a more consistently productive defensive player.
David West will remain largely the same player he has been ever since Chris Paul arrived in 2005; a reliable face-up power forward that can stretch the defense and rebound at an average clip for the position. Along with the predictable +13.7 net production at point guard, the Hornets only other positive margin was the +2.2 at power forward. Given the presence of many high quality power forwards in the West, the Hornets will have an advantage at the position on most nights.
Hilton Armstrong received over 1k minutes for the first time in his career last season and vastly improved his TS% to .585, though he hasn't developed as a rebounder or shotblocker in any meaningful way. He has looked good in the preseason and will need to play important reserve minutes and occasional spot starting for Okafor.
Ike Diogu was a savvy, inexpensive pickup, who will give the Hornets a more conventional power forward. He couldn't crack Portland's rotation, but finished strongly with the Kings.
Darius Songaila has given a whole host of teams productive minutes when healthy and could win a few games for the Hornets.
Forecast: How often does the team with the best point guard in the NBA fail to make the playoffs? I can't think of the last time it has happened and had to look at Andre Miller's 01-02 with Cleveland for the last time the leader in assists per game was on a non-playoff team. But when was the last time an NBA Championship winning team featured the game's best point guard? We have to look at the 1990 Pistons for that distinction to be made. Magic Johnson and the Lakers in 1988 for the last time the game's best point guard won a title.
The Hornets have done all they can afford to do in tinkering with this roster, but are too weak on the wings to legitimately contend into the Western Conference Finals. |
